1. The Federal Reserve is set to deliver its second interest rate decision of the year, with markets expecting rates to remain steady. 2. Investors will focus on the updated dot plot and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for insights into the Fed's growth projections and tariff stance. 3. Key earnings reports from Nike and FedEx are expected, along with a busy week of housing market data.

1. Long-term treasury rates have declined, leading to a negative yield spread; 2. The narrowing yield spread is offset by positive developments, including bullish technical trading patterns and expected interest rate cuts in the next ~3 months; 3. The author reiterates a buy rating on NLY stock.

1. The S&P 500 index experienced a loss of -1.7% for the week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slumping -2.5%. 2. U.S. President Trump announced potential tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. 3. The Fed's January monetary policy committee minutes indicated a desire to see further progress on inflation before adjusting interest rates.

1. The US 10-year yield finally broke below 4.5%; 2. The Trump administration aims to lower rates through lower inflation and fiscal deficit; 3. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bp.

1. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to take a pause after cutting rates since September. 2. Investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve's signaling for future policy. 3. The debate is whether the Fed will cut rates again this year, with market pricing indicating a high probability of at least one cut.

1. The PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund's valuation dropped due to the central bank's cautious interest rate outlook, presenting a buying opportunity with a 14% yield. 2. The fund's price correction is seen as temporary, with a premium to NAV narrowing, signaling a market overreaction to delayed rate cuts. 3. The fund's portfolio of rate-sensitive fixed income instruments is poised to benefit from future interest rate cuts, supporting the investment thesis.

1. The Federal Reserve has cut the funds rate by 100bp in the current rate cut cycle; 2. The 10-year rate has risen by approximately 100bp over the same period; 3. Long-term SOFR rates are now trading at above neutral valuations, indicating potential for positive carry opportunities.

1. The Federal Reserve's rate cut will support markets but keep inflation above the 2% target; 2. The decision to cut rates is puzzling given persistent inflation above the 2% goal; 3. The Fed's board member warns of the risks of prolonged inflation.

1. The Fed has cut rates by 25bp, bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 100bp. 2. The Fed's updated projections and Chair Powell's press conference indicate a more cautious approach next year. 3. Sticky inflation and President Trump's policy mix suggest a higher hurdle for rate cuts in 2025.

1. The Fed's rate cut decision could significantly impact interest rates, the dollar, and the bond market, with equities also affected over time. 2. Despite recent inflation data, there is a near 100% chance for a 25 bps rate cut, but the Fed should be cautious given rising inflation expectations. 3. If the Fed cuts rates, it should be the last cut unless inflation drops; otherwise, higher 10-year rates and a stronger dollar are expected.

1. Investors overlook Trump's tariff threats; 2. Fed signals moderate pace in cutting interest rates; 3. No exemption for crude oil imports; 4. U.S. oil producers unlikely to increase production significantly; 5. Bitcoin pulls back, precious metals under pressure.

1. There may be another explanation for the weakness in the US Treasury 10-year note prices, i.e., interest rates rising, and it is not fear of renewed inflation; 2. Flight-to-safety buyers may be feeling safer, willing to take on more risk; 3. Higher rates are a sign of a strong economy.

1. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its easing cycle with a 25-bps rate cut. 2. The weak October jobs report is unlikely to prompt a larger cut. 3. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has been rising since mid-September, raising concerns about rising debt levels and long-term inflation expectations.

1. StoneCo's stock has dropped nearly 40% year-to-date, primarily due to macroeconomic challenges in Brazil. 2. Brazil's interest rate hikes have affected expenses and profitability, particularly for small business clients. 3. Despite near-term hurdles, StoneCo's long-term guidance remains strong with an expected 31% CAGR in net income from 2024 to 2027.

1. FS KKR Capital is a BDC focusing on middle-market US companies' debt investments; 2. FSK's regular DPS coverage is around 120% as of June 2024; 3. Concerns about maintaining the base dividend as interest rates cut beyond 150 bps.

1. Headline inflation numbers are slightly above the Fed's target, primarily due to shelter cost estimation methods; 2. Interest rates, particularly mortgage rates, remain high relative to ex-shelter inflation; 3. Shelter cost inflation has been high and declining slowly, more slowly than expected.

1. Utility stocks are sensitive to interest rates and often correlate with long-term bond prices. 2. UTG has recovered most losses since 2023, but its valuation remains high. 3. XLU may be a better investment than UTG for income investors due to its higher dividend yield and lower fees.

1. The Fed's aggressive 0.5% rate cut risks devaluing the dollar, potentially spiking inflation and commodity prices, while destabilizing the U.S. financial system. 2. Realty Income's valuation is at risk due to the potential for rising inflation and long-term interest rates, impacting consumer spending and retail property lease demand. 3. The author downgrades Realty Income from Buy to Hold, waiting for better clarity on the direction of the economy and/or a significant price decline to open a better risk-reward entry.

1. REITs are experiencing a surge in value as interest rates are expected to decrease. 2. Dream Industrial and Clipper Realty are two REITs benefiting from strong rent growth and are expected to gain further from upcoming rate cuts. 3. Both REITs are undervalued compared to their peers, offering potential for significant returns.

1. U.S. equity markets rallied as interest rates fell after Fed Chair Powell announced rate cuts. 2. Real estate equities, particularly REITs, saw significant gains due to their sensitivity to Fed policies. 3. There was notable activity in REIT dividend adjustments, with more increases than reductions.